Billionaire Femi Otedola forecasts naira strengthening below ₦1,000 per dollar by end-2026, driven by Dangote Refinery’s full 650,000 bpd capacity
Dangote Refinery’s Full Throttle Could Send Naira Below ₦1,000/$ by December, Says Femi Otedola
Billionaire businessman and investor Femi Otedola is sounding an optimistic note on Nigeria’s currency, predicting the naira could strengthen to trade below ₦1,000 against the US dollar before the end of 2026—all thanks to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery hitting its stride.
In a post on his X platform, Otedola congratulated Aliko Dangote and the Dangote Group after the refinery achieved its full designed capacity of 650,000 barrels per day—a landmark moment that positions it to pump out up to 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily.
Otedola hailed the development as “transformative for Nigeria and the African continent,” arguing that ending decades of heavy fuel import dependence will slash demand for dollars in the foreign exchange market.
“With domestic refining now firmly underway after decades of reliance on imports, pressure on the foreign exchange market should ease significantly. I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below ₦1,000/$1 before year-end is increasingly within reach,” Otedola stated.
The refinery’s ramp-up follows recent optimization of its Crude Distillation Unit (CDU) and Motor Spirit (MS) production block, enabling steady full-capacity operations and marking a global first for a single-train refinery of this scale.
Otedola also spotlighted Dangote’s ambitious next step: a $12 billion expansion to boost refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day. The upgrade will add production of 2.4 million tonnes of polypropylene annually and 400,000 metric tonnes of Linear Alkyl Benzene for detergent manufacturing—further diversifying output and supporting industrial growth.
He described the entire trajectory as a “historic achievement” for Nigeria’s economy, urging continued momentum to unlock lasting forex relief and broader prosperity.
Otedola’s forecast comes amid recent naira gains, with the currency trading around ₦1,350–₦1,360 in the official market as of mid-February 2026—its strongest levels in over two years—fueled partly by improved oil sector dynamics and policy measures.
If domestic refining sustains momentum and curbs import bills, many analysts see room for further appreciation—though reaching sub-₦1,000 would require sustained stability across oil prices, inflows, and macroeconomic factors. Read More
