Nigeria’s cocoa export revenue surged 220% in Q1 2025 to N1.23 trillion as global price shocks boost foreign exchange and diversify earnings beyond oil
Nigeria Records All-Time High Cocoa Export Earnings, Hits N1.23 Trillion in Q1 2025
Nigeria’s economy is enjoying a major windfall from the global surge in cocoa prices, with the commodity delivering record-breaking export earnings in the first quarter of 2025.
According to the H2 2025 Norrenberger Economic Outlook, Nigeria’s cocoa export receipts jumped by 220 percent year-on-year, climbing to N1.23 trillion compared to N384.1 billion in the same period of 2024.
“This represents the highest quarterly cocoa export revenue ever recorded in the country, reflecting both elevated international prices and stronger export volumes,” the report stated.
The development reinforces cocoa’s role as a key non-oil export for Nigeria at a time when the nation is actively working to diversify away from heavy dependence on oil revenues.
Global Price Shock Driving the Boom
The surge in Nigeria’s cocoa earnings is closely linked to extreme volatility in the global cocoa market over the past 18 months. Supply shortages from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana—the world’s two largest producers—triggered historic price rallies.
“Futures prices soared, with contracts in New York exceeding $12,000 per tonne and those in London touching $11,675 per tonne by December,” the report disclosed.
Multiple factors, including poor weather, the spread of cocoa swollen shoot virus (CSSV), dwindling inventories, and speculative trading, pushed prices upward. While cocoa briefly corrected by over 30 percent in March 2025, it rebounded by mid-June, trading as high as $11,000 per tonne before moderating to $8,101 per tonne at the end of June—still 20 percent higher year-on-year.
Economic Impact for Nigeria
Norrenberger analysts said the earnings surge is strengthening Nigeria’s external sector:
Narrowing the current account deficit
Reducing reliance on oil-related inflows
Providing the Central Bank of Nigeria with FX support to stabilize the naira
The report also highlighted rural benefits, noting that higher cocoa receipts are stimulating local economies, creating jobs, and strengthening agricultural value chains.
Risks to Long-Term Gains
Despite the windfall, concerns remain over sustainability. The report warned that aging cocoa trees, weak financing options for farmers, and poor infrastructure could stall progress once prices normalize.
To build resilience, analysts called for greater investment in local processing to add value, expand exports, and create industrial jobs.
Market Outlook
Looking ahead, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) projects a 142,000 metric tonne surplus for the 2024/25 season, ending four consecutive years of deficits. Global output is forecast to rise by 7.8 percent to 4.84 million tonnes, while demand—measured by grindings—is expected to drop by 4.8 percent due to weaker consumption in price-sensitive markets. Read More
