Atiku’s 2027 presidential ambition faces fresh uncertainty as PIG reviews its election forecast following the court judgment nullifying David Mark’s ADC leadership
Atiku 2027: ADC Court Ruling Forces PIG to Review Election Forecast
By Newsheadline247
The 2027 presidential race could face fresh political uncertainties following a Federal High Court judgment nullifying the leadership of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) under former Senate President David Mark, prompting the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng to review its November election projection.
The group said the ruling, which also invalidated decisions taken by the Mark-led leadership, including the party’s presidential primary that produced former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar as its candidate, could significantly alter the political calculations ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Justice Peter Lifu of the Federal High Court, Abuja, had nullified the Mark-led interim National Working Committee (NWC), declaring its emergence and actions on behalf of the party invalid.
In a statement issued in Lagos on Friday and signed by its Chairman, Lai Omotola, PIG said the development had made it necessary to reassess its November projection, particularly its assessment of Atiku’s position in the presidential contest.
The group’s November projection, unveiled on Thursday in Lagos, had identified a closely contested race among three leading contenders: President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi and Atiku.
In the initial assessment, Tinubu was projected to lead by a narrow margin, followed by Obi, with Atiku occupying third position. The group had described the contest as closely fought, with relatively small margins separating the three contenders.
However, PIG said the court judgment had introduced a significant new dimension into the electoral calculations, particularly in northern Nigeria, where Atiku has an established political base.
The group argued that if the judgment survives the appeal process and Atiku is eventually excluded from the ballot, the development could alter the distribution of votes in several northern states and potentially widen the margin projected for Tinubu.
According to PIG, some northern voters might prefer Tinubu to complete another four-year term rather than support an eight-year presidency under Obi.
The group, however, made its assessment conditional on the outcome of the appeal, acknowledging that the legal battle surrounding the ADC leadership and Atiku’s nomination remains unresolved.
The ADC and Atiku have rejected the judgment and indicated their intention to challenge it in court. The party has subsequently filed an appeal and sought a stay of execution of the ruling, while Atiku has maintained that his presidential ambition remains on course.
PIG said its December edition would provide a more comprehensive assessment of the political implications of the judgment, taking into consideration the outcome of the ADC’s appeal and other developments shaping the 2027 presidential contest.
The group added that its next projection would reflect the evolving political landscape and provide an updated assessment of the major contenders as preparations for the general election gather momentum.
